Friday, 30 December 2016

Make people go cashless using a bit of math?

PM Modi has been pushing people hard to go cashless with transactions, through numerous speeches, incentives, rewards, punishments, restrictions and what not other means. What if there's a solution that directly attacks the evolutionary hard-wiring in people's brains and causes them to shun cash transactions?

Owing to the 5 fingers on each hand, over millions of years, our brains are very comfortable with numbers that are multiples of 5 and 10. Evolution? Non multiples of 5 and 10 might be slightly harder to operate with, but not too hard if they can easily be combined to form multiples of 5 and 10. The toughest category of numbers to deal with mentally, while still staying in the decimal numbering system, is prime numbers. You probably know where this is going.

The trick is to replace all existing denominations with prime number denominations. Also need to make sure that these are in no way closer to any round numbers that human beings have a bias for. Bonus points if we can avoid running into Goldback's conjecture with our denominations, for example 2 chosen prime number denominations should not form a round number such as 1000. That would be a bummer.

Here's some sample ones: 13, 23, 61, 107, 569, 2053. I'm pretty sure there is a more optimal set out there, but you get the point. It's fun to think about how different situations would work out. You don't want to be the jerk gifting 569 at ceremonies and asking for 68 back. Even if you did, good luck with getting 68 back easily. Traffic police would be happy to get a 7% raise on Rs 100 bribes. What would cash prizes look like?Ransom notes will probably evolve to have demands for bitcoins.

Some numbers not chosen deliberately:

97, 997: Marketing folks and businesses would be delighted to have these.

101, 151, 701: PM and RBI would be labeled pro-Hindu and far right. These numbers are at the heart of Indian marriages. Well, not 701 as much, stretched it too far.

53: Too easy to accept 2053 and return 53. Brains run and evolve fast to exploit these kind of sub-optimalities. There is a reason why RBI is piling rules upon rules for deposits and withdrawals.

But who knows if this system will stand the test of time, technology and evolution. The newer generation will grow up to better handle prime numbers mentally? Prices will be quoted as Y number of X denomination notes? There will be several apps to make the counting task easier (voice input enabled, cloud, AI, ML, some other buzz words)? Finger print for payments will obviate this (and credit cards, Apple pay, PayTM, Google Wallet etc), since biometric data has already been collected and can be linked to bank accounts? Hint Hint.

Saturday, 13 June 2015

If you aren't fun-loving, then you are ...

... Peace-loving. All social settings are packed with people who identify themselves as fun-loving or try to. A lot of us are actually not, but for the lack of the knowledge of an alternative identity, we've had little choice than to try to be fun-loving. Not anymore. Through this post I hope to bring forth the other side, the peace-loving side. I hope this post finds itself before the eyes of closet-peace-lovers who didn't know such a type existed. I hope to put an end to the misery of peace-lovers who have been buried under the expectations and impositions of fun-loving people.

What exactly is the difference between fun-loving and peace-loving? Fun-loving folks are mostly extroverted, who spend a lot of time and energy bragging about something or the other or showing off their materialistic consumption via social media websites. They are the party-types, running-types, gunning-types, dancing-types, often found hanging out with a gazillion of friends. They love night-outs, flaunting stuff that isn't even remotely worth flaunting, ending every sentence with "it was fun". And most importantly, they'll try to push everyone around them to do all of the above. In contrast, peace-loving folks are mostly introverted, reclusive, keep to themselves. They are less noisy on social media, won't share a lot about themselves, but will share useful stuff or content with artistic or scenic beauty. They have a few but close friends (including books), avoid a lot of socializing and small-talk, stick to and prefer routines and get irritated by fun-loving people. Here's a pic to demo the difference between what each type's mind goes through over a life time:

Why is it important to identify oneself as peace-loving if we are such? The human mind has evolved to label oneself as being a certain type or belonging to a certain group. When one doesn't have an identity, chances are they will try to put on one, they are most familiar with. Now because fun-loving people flock social sites, share stuff that they categorize as fun and keep discussing them in virtually all social interactions, that's what one sees or hears about the most. The confused lot will not come across a peace-loving person as easily because those are probably sitting at home, reading a fat book. So the closest thing to normal then seems to be being fun-loving. The lack of identity can cause people to feel, if they are not fun-loving then they must be boring (that's what fun-loving people call the peace-loving ones). Confused, they will try to do everything they can, to "fit in". They will want to do things that will make fun-loving people around them approve of them. Having an identity as being peace-loving, is thus, of utmost importance to be at peace with oneself and be who they really are.

Imagine yourself at a wedding-eve party (Dandia, DJ etc). There is loud music and a bunch of folks dancing, whereas, you the peace-lover, are sitting quietly either savoring food or helplessly watching whatever's going on. One of the fun-loving type decides that you should be dancing as well and tries to drag you out to the dance floor (this scene is very common, no exaggeration). If you don't know your identity, you'll try to be defensive a couple of times, give in to the persuasion and then find yourself trying to move your limbs rythmatically, feeling stupid all the while. But if you know your identity, you'll drag back whoever was trying to drag you and tie them up to a chair. You'll impose peace upon them, just like they were trying to impose fun upon you.

Now imagine a few friends trying to persuade you to stay up late at night to chat up or play cards or watch a movie or go out for coffee. But the peaceful you, has a routine that requires you to go to bed at your usual time and get some sound sleep. Armed with your now known identity, you can persuade your friends back to do all of those activities before bed-time. They won't necessarily agree, but at least you are not the one saying no anymore; they are. That is quite an achievement.

I have a distant aunt who calls her husband boring. He is soft-spoken, creative and a gentleman. But what's happening here is that a fun-loving person married a peace-loving one. The husband probably played along for a few years, but gave up at some point, much to the disappointment of the aunt who'd hoped he will change over time. This brings me to the most important advice for unmarried people. Wait until 25 till your hormones stabilize, identify yourself as either fun-loving or peace-loving and marry your type. This alone will hugely boost your chances of having a stable marriage.

I don't want to imply in any way that fun-loving people should be shunned (although I do sound like implying that, owing to my biases). All I'm saying is peace-loving people should use their identity to respectfully (or forcibly) put fun-loving people in their place and fun-loving people should reduce imposing their views on everyone else. As for me, being a Gujarati makes life a little difficult. Having fun is so much a part of the culture, that Gujaratis greet each other with "majha ma?" which literally means "Having fun?". It is not going to be easy to defy conventions, but I'm sure it'll be worth it.

Sunday, 31 May 2015

Bang for the Buck: Part 2

In Part 1, we went over yield and capital appreciation as means to make money. In this part, we'll look at the different instruments available for yield and capital appreciation and their characteristics, suitability etc.

But before that, it would be worthwhile to understand a thing or two about inflation and its effects on returns. Inflation plays a very important and deciding role in what instruments to choose for investment/trading. Inflation is the increase in prices of goods over time; a silent tax that deteriorates buying power. Countries like India can have as much as 100% inflation over a decade, while some other countries may not have inflation at all. As a consequence of inflation, any cash sitting in your pocket is losing its buying power every day. Thus a good rule to follow is to park money only where you can potentially achieve an average of Inflation + 5% returns. Since banks set their fixed deposit interest rates at or near inflation, you can as well use the FD interest rate + 5% as a goal, your benchmark being the inflation rate itself. Now that we've established a rough baseline for returns, time to look at means.

Job at a stable company
A job at a stable company yields a fixed income over your time and skills (human capital). Suitable for all age groups, especially those who are risk averse owing to their nature or life situation. An important thing to remember though is that the annual pay rise has to be at least as much as the rate of inflation, else you are taking an indirect pay cut. I overheard a co-operative bank employee in India, years back, complain about no pay hike for 8 years. At the time the inflation was close to 10%. Imagine the amount of buying power lost!

Job at a start-up
This usually is a combination of low fixed income plus a lot of company stock at early stage valuations. Thus a good mix of yield and potential for a lots of capital appreciation as the company grows. Suitable for 20-somethings, who don't have any financial obligations, or those who have accumulated a good amount of assets in their early life and afford to take the risk of a start-up later in life. The risk here comes from the fact that most startups fail. The experience can be valuable though and it is somewhat prestigious these days to have been a part of a failed venture.

If you are a founder, without venture capital investment, this is as good as betting your farm on one idea. Either you have to have a really really good idea and skills or a stomach for risk or be stupid or have a rich father. If you have VC backing and draw a salary this is similar to working for a startup.

Fixed Deposit in a bank
Bank interest rates on fixed deposits are usually set closer to inflation. This means if inflation is 10% per year, then banks will likely be paying an interest closer to 10%. Adjusted for inflation, the return from a fixed deposit over time is 0. Fixed deposits just help maintain the buying power of money. If you have money and have no idea what to do with it, at the very least you should put it in an FD, until you figure out something else. This is just like cash with inflation protection. Especially important for people in countries like India that can have run-away inflation. Folks in countries like USA (where the inflation is close to 0% and thus the interest on FD) can park money in tax-free NRE accounts in India and earn a good interest. Liquidity (money being available when required) is an advantage of this allocation.

Bonds (government, municipal, corporate) and instruments of debt. A fixed interest rate is paid and it can be much higher than FD rates in case of corporate bonds. Best invested via a debt-based mutual fund or ETF, who have the means to research and diversify. Look for the ones that pay inflation + 3-5% "consistently". Good option for risk-averse folks, or the ones wanting a peaceful fixed-income life.
Fun fact: Recent swiss bond yields went negative, meaning you pay the interest for the bonds that you bought. Who would've thought! 

Private money-lending
Parking money with individuals rather than a bank can fetch a much higher interest rate but that is because of the higher risk that the borrower may be insolvent in the near future (Liquidity risk). Suitable only when you're young and can afford to lose money or when you won't need that money immediately. Also never ever allocate more than a certain percentage of your net worth to this.

One option is to buy a piece of property and rent it out. The other is to flip properties. In any case, this is an illiquid asset class requiring a substantial sum for upfront investment. Over time, real-estate prices keep up with inflation (not every year, but over a decade or more). So if you have a good amount of money that you won't need for at least a decade, real-state can provide protection against inflation, plus the money earned from renting out can offer a good yield. This way you can achieve your goal of inflation + 3-5%. As for flipping properties, I do not recommend it at all, since this involves speculation which is best done with liquid assets like stocks, where you can immediately pull money out. I know a lot of folks who thought real-estate would keep going up and employed leverage (another stupidity) and got burnt. There also are sensible folks who buy old houses at low prices (auctions), renovate them and sell them for a profit.

For folks who don't have a substantial sum, REITs (real-estate investment trusts) can provide for a good vehicle. The idea is that a trust pools money from smaller investors and invests them in properties. More than 90% of rental income earned is distributed as dividends. REITs are traded just like stocks and thus offer ample liquidity, unlike going solo. During market crashes, REITs can be available at too-good-to-be-true yields. The disadvantage though is the price fluctuation and volatility that comes with being publicly traded, which can emotionally knock off a lot of folks. This concept is firmly established in US and slated to be launched in India in 2016.

Academicians who put forth the "Efficient Market Hypothesis" (EMH) themselves, over the last 2 decades have found, "Value" (buying high-yield stocks) and "Momentum" (buying stocks going up) to be consistently profitable over several centuries (not decades) and asset classes. They started calling these methods as anomalies to EMH. But research has reached a point where the EMH itself is more like an anomaly to Value and Momentum! EMH was based on the assumptions of infinite liquidity and rational behavior, both proven to be not true. In fact, there are whole new fields called behavioral psychology and behavioral economics that have exposed so many biases that cloud our minds, that it is extremely humbling. Also many people think efficient and random are the same things. They are not. Markets are not fully random either. Events that should happen once a century in pure-random environments, happen twice a decade in stocks. That is not to say markets are completely inefficient or non-random, they are just slightly inefficient and slightly less random than they were thought to be.

Stocks are a very liquid and a volatile asset class. Many people call stocks risky because of volatility (it is common for stocks markets to fluctuate 10-20%). If you don't have a stomach for volatility or don't know how to use it to your benefit, this asset class is not for you. Also not for people over a certain age or financial situation that simply cannot afford to lose money.

Value investing involves buying stocks that offer a good yield and those where yield will be consistent over upcoming years. The usual practice is to find the free cash flow that a business generates for the market cap it is available at. Apparently when markets crash the yields are at their highest (denominator in the cash/price goes down) and happens to be the best time for Value investors to step in. When Buffett says "Be fearful when everyone else is greedy and be greedy when everyone else is fearful", he isn't necessarily conducting a survey to gauge sentiment. What he means is buy when the yields are higher and sell when they are lower. Nobody else understands the cyclic nature of yields better than Warren Buffett. There is much more to this topic but out of scope for this post.

Momentum trading is employed to capture the vertical move in stock prices of businesses in their golden period of earning cycles. This is a buy-high, sell-higher approach. Momentum is slightly different than "Trend following" that is used in currencies and commodities, mostly because stock prices are bursty in nature as opposed to the pure trends in currencies/commodities.

If you don't have the time to do your Value/Momentum research, park your money in other assets and not mutual funds, since over 95% of funds under-perform the markets. Their size and the restrictions on them to diversify make sure that they under perform. Any approach, be it value or momentum, requires concentration of capital in a few businesses to make meaningful returns.

Tax laws say that any stock held over a year falls into the investing category. An important thing to remember is that an legal system is based on actions not intentions. It is easy to prove actions than intentions. From the intention perspective, however, Value approach is actual investing and Momentum is trading (irrespective of holding period). But it is advisable to find methods where you can hold stocks for more than a year, irrespective of approach used, to take advantage of tax laws.

Currencies/Commodities (gold/silver/oil/USD/GBP/Yen/soybean etc)
These are mostly traded using derivatives (futures/options), since most of us won't want to buy a truck full of soybean or coffee or sugar :). Derivatives need to be bought in lots (read huge quantities) and thus the huge capital requirement makes this out of question for normal investors or even rich investors. Most sophisticated hedge funds don't use the leverage offered by derivatives but naive traders do and can end up with a massive debt. The approach used to trading these involves "volatility adjusted" position sizing and trend following. If you have access to ETFs (USA), you can emulate a hedge fund. ETF is a concept similar to REITs mentioned earlier. Since this category and financial calculations surrounding entries/exits/position-sizing/risk is out of scope, we won't go into more details.

A special note about gold though: Gold seduces a lot of people from the past generation. It is thought to be a protection against inflation, but given it's volatility that doesn't play out as expected. That is also the reason why USD replaced gold as the world's reserve currency. Gold has some limited value as a protection against hyper-inflation, emergency money and jewelry. But beyond that, not a good asset to be in, unless you are a hedge fund that follows trends.

Hope this was helpful. Happy money!

Monday, 25 May 2015

Bang for the Buck: Part 1

I've had an inclination towards personal finance, investing and trading for a while, which over time, has helped gain insights into the various characteristics, suitability and gotchas of different financial assets. When talking to people of different age-groups and life-situations, I often notice that they are very confused about how to allocate a chunk of capital, what path of money-making to choose, what instruments or assets to use and such. Through this post, I'll try to offer some classification and details, which hopefully will serve to be informational and reduce confusion. More specifically we'll look at the 2 major ways of making money: Yield and Capital Appreciation.

Disclaimer: Everything in this post is strictly for informational purposes and should not be seen as career or financial advice. If you read this and (still) do something stupid, you are on your own.

Also loosely known as income, is essentially the money/cash an asset (tangible or intangible) generates relative to its price. The asset could be a job (human-capital), where you earn a certain per hour income. Similarly, the asset could be a piece of farm-land that has a certain crop yield; real-estate that earns a certain rent; any system with an arbitrage; equity in a business that yields a certain free-cash-flow from operations. Note: I didn't say dividends because even when a company, doesn't distribute profits to share-holders as dividends, it can still re-invest it, which ultimately helps increase the asset value and thus generate more cash and we're in a loop.

For our understanding, let's say yield = cash / asset price. To have a higher yield, then, either the numerator has to go up or the denominator has to come down. Trying to predict if the numerator will go up, is a recipe for disaster, since there are way too many variables and "unknown unknowns". But Wall Street analysts actively do that (whole other discussion for another time). A much better practice is to wait until the price of an asset crashes and becomes much less than it's value, thus automatically driving up yield. This is what Uncle Warren does. More on that later.

Yield as a way to generate cash, is suitable to all age groups and doesn't have a steep learning curve. In fact, some great speculators who make money via capital appreciation, recommend allocating 90% of one's net worth to the pursuit of yield. That highlights the importance of this approach.

Capital Appreciation.
A practice where an asset is bought with an "intention" to be sold later at a higher price. (You could end up selling an asset at a higher price even in the yield method just because the yields lowered, but it wasn't your explicit intention to do so). Now since the future is rife with unknowns and unknown unknowns, it makes this method risky and requiring specialized knowledge. This is essentially speculation or sophisticated gambling where the near-certainty of yield is replaced with a probability factor. Estimating the probability to be higher or lower than 50% in itself is a herculean task somewhat, since we are trying to outsmart a lot of randomness!

When you hear about folks picking stocks, for their price is supposed to rise, or people flipping houses, for real-estate never goes down (a myth, by the way), what you are seeing is the pursuit of capital appreciation.

This method is not suitable for folks who don't have much time or willingness to do the required research to find an edge. It also needs a stomach for volatility and portfolio draw-downs (i.e decline from peak value). And yet I've seen people not just employ this method, but with 10x leverage who then ended up being indebted for the rest of their lives. If you have the time and willingness to put the hard work, this approach can be fun, engaging and help you make money in short time.

Having looked at the 2 broad categories, it would be a good time to do some myth-busting:

Myth: I hold assets for years, therefore I am an investor.
Truth: Anyone who pursues yield as a way of making money, is an investor and everybody else is a trader. Time frame has nothing to do with being an investor really. A micro-second inter-currency arbitrage exploited by a computer can be termed as an investment in a system with a variable yield. The financial world, including a lot of pundits, get this completely wrong. They want to call themselves investors, just because the term trader sometimes has a negative connotation owing to the gambling aspect.

Myth: Fixed Deposit in a bank is a great way of achieving yield.
Truth: Adjusted for inflation, the return from a fixed deposit is 0. Yes 0. Fixed deposits just help maintain the buying power of money. More on that in the next part.

Myth: Real estate prices keep rising, so flipping houses is a great strategy for capital appreciation.
Truth: Real estate prices rise only to keep up with the longer term inflation. Flipping houses can still be a great strategy, not because real-estate prices keep rising but for reasons we'll see later in this series. 

In the next part we'll closely look at instruments/vehicles like cash, bonds, real-estate, stocks, derivatives, gold, businesses, startups, jobs, their characteristics like liquidity and volatility. We'll also look at what approach is suitable for what kind of personalities, life-style, age group, with a certain amount of money.

Stay tuned.

Thursday, 9 May 2013

Vegan products from Fresh & Easy

I love Fresh & Easy. Now I love them even more after finding out their comprehensive list of vegan products from
Compiled some vegan items that would be of frequent use (there are many more, check for products marked with (V) )

  • F&E Cookie Bites Cereal (V)
  • F&E Cocoa Sharks (V)
  • F&E Apple Cinnamon Smiles (V)
  • F&E Farina Wheat Cereal (V)
  • F&E Quick Rolled Oats (V)
  • F&E Grits (V)
  • F&E Old Fashioned Rolled Oats (V)
  • Nature’s Path Envirokidz Organic Gorilla Crunch Cereal(V)
  • Nature’s Path Envirokidz Organic Koala Crisp Cereal (V)
  • Nature’s Path Organic Flax Plus Flakes Cereal (V)
  • Nature’s Path Organic Flax Plus Pumpkin Raisin Bran Cereal Crunch (V)
  • Nature’s Path Maple Pecan Crunch (V)
  • Nature’s Path Hemp Plus Granola (V)

  • So Delicious Ice Cream and Novelties (V)

Cookies, fruit bars:
  • F&E Vegan Chocolate Chip Cookie (V)
  • F&E Cookie Crèmes (Chocolate, Vanilla) (V)
  • F&E Goodness Apple Cinnamon Fruit Bar (V)
  • F&E Goodness Strawberry Banana Fruit Bar (V)
  • F&E Goodness Chocolate Animal Cookies (V)
  • F&E Goodness Vanilla Animal Cookies (V)
  • F&E EatWell Cranberry Apple Fruit Bar (V)
  • F&E EatWell Pomegranate Raspberry Fruit Bar (V)
  • Nature’s Path Envirokidz Organic Peanut Butter Rice Bar (V)
  • Nature’s Path Envirokidz Organic Berry Rice Bar (V)

Butter, Jam:
  • F&E Butters (Peanut, Cashew, Almond) (V)
  • F&E Jellies & Jams (Assorted Varieties) (V)

Bagel, Breads, bakery:
  • F&E Pumpkin Bagel (Seasonal) (V)
  • F&E Rosemary Rolls (V)
  • F&E Rustic Rolls (V)
  • F&E Bolillos (V)
  • F&E English Muffins (V)
  • F&E Sourdough English Muffins (V)

  • F&E Salsa (Hot, Medium, Mild, Mango, Pico de Gallo, Southwest) (V)
  • F&E Balsamic Vinaigrette (V)
  • F&E Pizza Sauce (V)
  • F&E Marinara Sauce (V)

P.S: All cheese are completely vegetarian and made from vegetarian rennet only.

Thursday, 25 August 2011

Unforgivable - How BS can a life be!

Its the first day of Paryushan, the Jain festival of forgiving and I haven't been able to forgive myself since lunch!

I went to the food-court, that I usually go to, to satiate hunger and indulge my taste buds. They did not have anything exciting on the menu and apparently the queue wasn't worth the wait. So I hopped out and went to Subway for a foot-long. There was a lady ahead of me, who was customizing her 2 sandwiches with great care and patience, inquiring about the bread types and available cheese flavors, then mulling over whether or not to include Avocados. I was growing impatient, owing to hunger and owing to something that I wanted to quickly try out, once in office. 

Several thoughts passes my mind, including ones about obesity in this part of the world when the lady ordered extra cheese and also thoughts about how relaxed people here are, with no consideration for how long the queue behind them is. Finally, she was done with her endlessly customized sub. And consequently me too. I felt relaxed that I finally had lunch in my hand.

I left the shop, after her, and saw something that made me feel terrible about myself. She gave away the sub to a street side beggar outside Subway (Yes, we have beggars here, post recession). Here I was thinking about obesity and other stupid, irrelevant details. And she displayed qualities of a true humanitarian, selfless being. She put efforts in setting up the sub, much more efforts than I, ever, put in for setting up mine.

That moment completely shattered all the perceptions I had about myself. I hold a good position with a reputed employer in the beautiful state of California, which I was proud of.  But the truth is that I am just another human being, selfish, materialistic and indifferent to people starving and dying. What I hold is of no use to anyone else and probably not even me. I can forgive people, but there is no way I am going to be able to forgive myself and there is no reason why I should, unless I perform some deeds of benevolence with a kind heart. I hope this realization proves to be the first step towards doing what really needs to be done.

I needed a wake up call. I got one.

Saturday, 2 July 2011

Timed Out

"Timed out" in the internet world means that your browser gave up on trying to connect to the shady web-site you requested. (I can already hear the  .. "it happened to me" murmurs ..and .. hands down please). Your favorite pink browser doesn't want you to be a moron staring at the screen endlessly. Also it doesn't really care about how desperate you are ... or probably it does ... and this is for your own good karma, that the browser is tracking, along with cookies.

But anyway, if the browser is intelligent enough to save its own and your time, why can't you be? Umm ... because we have an ego that the browser doesn't. Umm .. because mum told us when we were young, that we should persevere and never give up and then be a failure and then try to learn from that failure and then build hopes of success. Non-sense. Your time is not unlimited. You will be timed out too.

And before that happens, you want to save as much time, as possible, by avoiding working on things that are not going to work out anyway. But how do we know, without trying endlessly? Lets assume probably they would work out, but the amount of time required would make them unfeasible. We need timers. We need to time out our attempts. And we already do it in our small little way.

We have this thing called the alarm-clock, or a smart-phone with an inbuilt alarm functionality, with the ability to choose from various melodious tones, that wake us up from our Penelope Cruz (replace with your favorite chick) dreams. Timed out. Call someone and after 4 or so rings, if still unanswered, you reach her voice-mailbox. Timed out. So the point is, try and then try more, but set a deadline and discontinue once it is past that.

Lets say, you want to woo this girl, who you think, won't even give you a tiny rat's ass. Try pushing the envelope down her throat (deep). Maybe like 3 times. And if that doesn't work, cheat yourself and increase the deadline to 5 times and push harder. And if that doesn't work either then visit this post again and don't forget to set a limit on how many times you visit this post. Move on!

On a serious note, surprisingly, such timing out strategies work really well with stocks and other such instruments. I don't know why, but there is data that proves that such strategies are better than any other such.
(Please don't try this at home). Starting a gig? Give yourself a fixed number of years to make it work. If it does, all good, if it doesn't, move on. Want to make kids? ... stop reading this post and go back to making kids.

Timed out!